Democracy in Palestine

It would be foolish to try and give a complete history of the Israel/Palestine conflict in a single blog post. It is one of the longest running disputes out there. Various world leaders have attempted to find solutions (e.g. that summit Bill Clinton had with Benjamin Netanyahu and Yasser Arafat), but nothing has been completely successful. There is no denying that some knowledge of recent events would give you an idea why the Palestinian elections are important though.

The elections will be happening in May. Hopefully there will be some coverage of them in the mainstream media. It is so important that people remain aware of world events.

The flag of Palestine

Recent history

The Presidential election should have taken place on January 24th, 2010. However, they were both postponed. What’s worse is that it should have happened even earlier:

“2. The presidential office term shall be four years. He/she shall not be elected for more than two terms.”

The above is from article 3 of a 2007 Presidential decree, which annulled the previous law. The previous election happened on January 9th, 2005. This mean one should have taken place in early 2009. Various disputes between Fatah and Hamas (the two leading Palestinian parties) were the main cause of this. The election was rescheduled for July 2010, but then there was a further delay because the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority wanted to safeguard “national unity” and create some form of agreement between the two parties.

In December of that year, the Palestine High Court ruled that the delay was a violation of Article 10 of the 2005 law (which appears to be the same as Article 29 of the 2007 law). It’s interesting that the make a reference to the previous law that was made irrelevant before the delays began, but the issue of disenfranchisement remains.

There is also the issue of control of territories. At present, Fatah (affiliated to the Palestine Liberation Organisation) is in control of the Palestine National Authority. The PLO approves of a two state solution and the PLO has had the support of the US in the past. Mahmoud Abbas is recognised as the President of Palestine. However, in reality their current influence is limited to the West Bank. Hamas (the opposition and not PLO-affiliated) currently has influence in the Gaza Strip. This is because of violence that occurred after Hamas won the Parliamentary elections in 2006. A coalition had to be formed, but that broke down.

The unity agreement in 2011 was supposed to pave the way for a transitional government where Abbas would remain President and Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal would be Prime Minister. However, meetings that should have taken place after this never happened. A meeting in Qatar was supposed to see a transitional government formed with Abbas becoming Prime Minister, but this possibility has come under fire and, at present Salam Fayyad is the Prime Minister (appointed by Abbas in 2007).

The previous election

These are the results of the previous election:

As you can see, Hamas did not enter a candidate. According to 2004 figures, there were 1,092,407 registered voters and 73.42% cast their vote. It was a landslide victory for Abbas, but then you would expect that when he is the leader of the only major party in the election. It was seen as a step forward in the peace process because Israel consider Hamas to be a terrorist organisation. However, since Hamas gained control of Gaza, that statement (echoed by many leaders) seems a bit foolish (rather like the infamous ‘Mission Accomplished’ message behind George Bush on the USS Abraham Lincoln in 2003).

The new election

Mahmoud Abbas has been nominated by Fatah and if he were to win, then it would be his final term according to electoral law. It may be four years this time, but delays have happened before. In January, Khaled Mehsaal decided to not stand as the Hamas candidate at the next election. I cannot find anything that says who the Hamas candidate would be. However, they may do the same thing as 2005 and not enter a candidate. Talks have broken down, but considering the influence in Gaza and their parliamentary victory in 2006, they may stand a chance of winning.

The views of the United States and Israel are always considered important in this situation. Israel still considers Hamas to be terrorist. So do the US (as well as the UK and EU). Recently, Barack Obama has sided with Israel:

“At every crucial juncture – at every fork in the road – we have been there for Israel. Every single time.”

The Republican candidates also seem to be siding with Israel. For example, this is what Mitt Romney had to say recently:

“We will not have an inch of difference between ourselves and our ally, Israel.”

Due to them siding with Israel, you’d expect continued support of Fatah controlling all of Palestine.

Summary and Conclusion

It’s good that there’s a date for the Presidential elections. The people have had to wait too long for a vote, which is their democratic right. Recent talks indicated that Hamas might take part, but there’s no guarantee. They may have a chance due to previous parliamentary victories and current influence, but international opposition would cause problems.

If the election does happen on the specified date, Mahmoud Abbas should win again. Violence will probably continue though. These elections would be an end to the cycle.

So, what do you think?